Woah how did February get so far away from me. I have had my preseason breakdown done for about 2 weeks now, but this is the first time I've sat down to type it all out.
So, essentially this post will be in two parts. First being the preseason preview that takes up about 20 pages of paper in a notebook (don't worry the resulting section will not be that long), and the other with be a check up to see how my predictions are going plus other reactions.
PREVIEW:
I guess the best way to do this is explain my methods that lead me to the conclusions I reached without having to show you all of the numbers involved. Basically, I took stats from last year and looked at who the team lost verses who they kept and their key new players.
After about 4 hours of number crunching and making guesses and assumptions this is how the Top 20 will shake out at the end of the season, and their records.
1. Virginia (12-2)
2. Cornell (13-2)
3. Johns Hopkins (13-2)
4. North Carolina (11-3)
5. Notre Dame (9-3)
6. Duke (11-4)
7. Denver (11-2)
8. Syracuse (10-4)
9. Bucknell (13-2)
10. UMass (10-3)
11. Villanova (10-4)
12. Maryland (8-5)
13. Harvard (10-4)
14. Yale (8-5)
15. Colgate (9-4)
16. Penn St. (8-6)
17. Georgetown (9-4)
18. Army (10-4)
19. Loyola (9-3)
20. Fairfield (10-5)
Obviously there are some teams here that started in the Top 20 that didn't make it to the end, and also teams that didn't start there that end well.
Top 20 Busts:
Hofstra: It's not that I think Hofstra is a bad team (far from it) I just don't think they can beat the big teams still. I have them ending with a 7-7 record with only 1 against a Top 20 team. They have to win 10 games to stay, and I don't think they will.
Princeton:
Every says that their season last year was down because of injuries, but I think this year won't end any differently for one reason. To win games you have to score goals, and I don't think they are capable of scoring more then they let in. Yes they have a fantastic defense and goalie, but no one on the other side of the ball can really carry this team. This is why they will end the season with a below .500 record. Sorry Tigers.
Penn:
I think they rode their early season win over Duke for far too long last year, and their schedule this year is very tough. They may be able to pull off a win against a Top 10 team, but they will lose the other 3 and probably a few against the rest the Top 20. They just aren't that good.
Drexel:
Honestly, they don't have to do much to fall out, and they have a very tough schedule. Sorry Dragons, but it will be a long season. Hold tight.
Top 20 Busters:
Georgetown:
Even with their first loss against Maryland I think they will surprise a lot of teams and take down all of their low-mid Top 20 opponents. They are pretty solid at all positions, and I think they will get stronger as the season goes on. If they get a big early win watch out, because they could ride that all the way into the postseason.
Loyola:
Again, more solid all around then they are given credit for. They don;t have the toughest schedule, which may hurt them come tournament time, but they will win more than their fair share.
Army:
Even with their full and heavy schedule they will win more than they lose and make a few teams sweat through the end of the game, because they will play all 60 minutes every game and do it well.
Tournament Seeds:
I did get a little carried away and predicted through the Memorial Day. This is that I came up with:
Seed #
1. Virginia (At Large)
2. Cornell (Ivy League Champ)
3. Johns Hopkins (At Large)
4. North Carolina (At Large)
5. Denver (ECAC Champ)
6. Duke (At Large)
7. Notre Dame (At Large)
8. Syracuse (Big East Champ)
9. Bucknell (Patriot League Champ)
10. Maryland (At Large)
11. UMass (Colonial League Champ)
12. Georgetown (At Large)
13. Harvard (At Large)
14. Villanova (At Large)
15. Stony Brook (America East Champ)
16. Siena (MAAC Champ)
The final four will include Cornell, Hopkins, Virginia, and Denver with Virginia going back-to-back.
FIRST 2 WEEKS:
Well with all of that laid out my current prediction record is 35-10 making me correct 78% of the time which given the turbulent nature of early season games I feel is respectable. I think it is a little too early to start talking about disappointments and trends since it is so early. However it isn't too early to talk about the upcoming week's games...
Princeton/Hopkins Friday 3/2 Hopkins Win
This game will be the first big game for both teams. If Princeton can find a way to shut down the high powered Hopkins offense this game could be close, but Princeton will not win a shoot-out game.
Cornell/Army Saturday 3/3 Cornell Win
Cornell's first potential challenge. If they aren't careful with the ball or effective on defense Army could make them sweat at the end of the game.
Maryland/Duke Saturday 3/3 Maryland Win
This is a huge early season match up. Both teams have huge points to prove. Maryland has to show they can score with their new core of attackmen, and Duke has to show that they can show up and score against big teams. I can see this game ending up in a shoot-out and Maryland has shown they can score in bunches more than Duke. Should be close.
Ohio State/Penn State Saturday 3/3 Penn State Win
Both of these teams are fighting for early season recognition. Both scoring early big wins (OSU against Denver Penn St. against Notre Dame), and are looking at this season to bring their programs into the Top 10 spotlight. Will be a close hard fought game with so much on the line.
Virginia/Syracuse Sunday 3/4 Virginia Win
The crown jewel match up this week brings two storied programs together for a great Sunday game. No more football? Who cares with this match. I think this year is a rebuilding season for the boys from Syracuse, but that doesn't mean they aren't dangerous. With a coach like Desko and players like they have anything is possible. I have no idea how close this game will be. I can see it being close or UVA blowing out Cuse. Still, no matter. When these teams come to play magic happens.
Check in next week to see the a (shorter and more informative) update.
QikStick
